Covid-19 risk mitigation - Comment
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Information covered in this presentation slides: 1. Covid-19 risk mitigation Prepared by Tengku Hanidza Tengku Ismail, PhD 2. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 2 3. Putting mitigation into practice is based on: • Emphasizing individual responsibility for taking recommended personal-level actions • Empowering businesses, schools, and community organizations to take recommended actions, particularly in ways that protect persons at increased risk of severe illness • Focusing on settings that provide critical infrastructure or services to individuals at increased risk of severe illness • Minimizing disruptions to daily life to the extent possible 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 3 4. Community Mitigation Community mitigation activities are actions that people and communities can take to slow the spread of infectious diseases, including COVID-19. Community mitigation is especially important before a vaccine or drug becomes widely available. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 4 5. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 5 6. •People with risk factors may be more likely to need hospitalization or intensive care if they have COVID-19, or they may be more likely to die of the infection •Take extra precautions to avoid exposure to the virus that causes COVID- 19 •Reduce your risk for severe COVID- 19 illness by managing any conditions you have that are risk factors •It is important to learn about risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness because it can help you Why Risk Factors Matter Pregnancy Race/Ethnicity Gender Underlying conditions Use of certain medications Poverty Overcrowding Certain occupations Age 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 6 7. COVID-19 Transmission in the air 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 7 8. Covid-19 spread in confined spaces: How 1 person infected 94 co-workers Attack rate is 43.5% No evidence of linked to other clusters Extensive contact tracing, testing all contacts, and early quarantine blocked further transmission and might be effective for containing rapid outbreaks in crowded work settings. Floor plan of the 11th floor of building X, site of a coronavirus disease outbreak, Seoul, South Korea, 2020. Blue coloring indicates the seating places of persons with confirmed cases. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 8 9. Covid-19 spread in confined spaces: 1 member spread to others in the choir group In a study yesterday in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), researchers describe a COVID-19 super-spreading event at a Washington state choir practice in March, which was attended by a symptomatic index patient and produced an attack rate of 53.3% to 86.7%. "The 2.5-hour singing practice provided several opportunities for droplet and fomite transmission, including members sitting close to one another, sharing snacks, and stacking chairs at the end of the practice," the authors, from Skagit County Public Health, said. "The act of singing, itself, might have contributed to transmission through emission of aerosols, which is affected by loudness of vocalization." (L. Hamner et al. Morb. Mortal Wkly. Rep. 69, 606–610; 2020).9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 9 10. Covid-19 spread in confined spaces: A combination of social distancing and mouth covering will break the COVID chain. Here’s why… 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 10 11. (1) A human cough: saliva droplet’s disease-carrier particles cannot travel more than 2 m in space at approximately zero wind speed. A human cough: mechanisms of airborne saliva droplet’s transport, breakup, dispersion, and evaporation. This figure shows different cloud kinematics (elongation and rotation) depending on the wind shearing force; the gravitational or settling forces; and the evaporation rates. (2) A human cough: saliva droplet’s disease-carrier particles may travel in the air medium to unexpected considerable distances depending on the environmental conditions. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 11 12. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 12 13. Rather than falling to the ground, the microdroplets float in the air and drift about. The researchers estimate that a single cough or sneeze can produce 100,000 microdroplets 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 13 14. Created by Purdue University in 2014 based on the related SARS virus A cough can infect up to ten surrounding people Saliva droplets from one cough cause an initial plume of germs, which then spread throughout the plane in the air. Will COVID-19 fits into this scenario? 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 14 15. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 15 16. The rate of particle emission during normal human speech is positively correlated with the loudness (amplitude) of vocalization, ranging from approximately 1 to 50 particles per second (0.06 to 3 particles per cm3) for low to high amplitudes, regardless of the language spoken (English, Spanish, Mandarin, or Arabic). This findings (2019) help to explain the superspreading events during COVID-19 pandemic: • A choir practice in a church in Mount Vernon, Washington • 80 infections tied to live music venues in Osaka, Japan • 65 cases resulting from Zumba classes in South Korea 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 16 17. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 17 18. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 18 19. The decision was made after an observational study was published in the medical journal The Lancet on Friday, which described how seriously ill Covid-19 patients who were treated with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine were more likely to die. Who do you want to believe? Science vs the President 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 19 20. (26/5) “Berdasarkan pengalaman dan pandangan pakar-pakar kesihatan mendapati ubat antiradang ini dapat membantutkan penyakit ini (COVID-19) pada peringkat awal bagi mencegah ia daripada melarat, namun ada kesan sampingan dari segi denyutan jantung dan mata. Jika pesakit itu didapati mempunyai denyutan jantung panjang, kami akan menghentikan terus penggunaan ubat itu bagi mengelakkan jantung berhenti dan sebagainya. Pakar-pakar masih lagi mengkaji bagaimana untuk mengelakkan kesan sampingan sedia ada dan bagaimana elakkan dos tinggi, dan tunggu literature review yang akan dikeluarkan oleh WHO pada pertengahan Jun ini (Pengarah KKM). 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 20 21. The science behind COVID-19 testing 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 21 22. False positive, false confidence A false positive will lead someone to believe they have been infected when in fact they have not been. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 22 23. Survey says….. after President Trump publicly asked whether injecting such products could treat COVID-19 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 23 Washing food with bleach, using household cleaning or disinfectant products on bare skin, and intentionally inhaling or ingesting these products were some of the most commonly reported "high- risk" practices in a May 4 online survey of 502 U.S. adults, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported. 39% reported intentionally engaging in at least one high-risk practice not recommended by the CDC to prevent coronavirus infection, including using bleach to clean food or misting the body with a disinfectant spray. 4% drank or gargled with diluted bleach solutions, soapy water or disinfectants. 24. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 24 25. The risk of a spike in infections is clearly present as some countries scrambled to restart their economies after easing stringent COVID- 19 restrictions, a top health official has warned. Michael Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization's (WHO) emergencies program, expressed his concerns on Monday over the lifting of certain lockdown conditions that he reckons may lead to a resurgence of coronavirus cases. "Shutting your eyes and trying to drive through this blind is about as silly an equation as I've seen. "And I'm really concerned that certain countries are setting themselves up for some seriously blind driving over the next few months," he added. His comments came as Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK relaxed restrictions in a bid to revive their almost stagnant economies. Ryan praised Germany and South Korea for putting in place robust measures that would be able to trace and stop virus clusters before they get out of control. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 25 26. Europe easing up lockdown mid May Coronavirus: How lockdown is being lifted across Europe https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52575313 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 26 27. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 27 25/5 UK easing up lockdown 28. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 28 29. May 11, 2020, 10:02 PM +08 (Reuters) SEOUL - South Korean officials scrambled on Monday to contain a new coronavirus outbreak, searching for thousands of people who may have been infected in a cluster of cases linked to nightclubs and bars in the capital Seoul. The education ministry put off the reopening of high schools, which was scheduled to begin on Wednesday, by one week in light of the new outbreak. In less than a week since a 29-year-old man was confirmed infected on Wednesday -- the first to be found linked to the infections in Itaewon, a Seoul neighborhood known for its nightlife -- at least 86 visitors of the nightclubs there had tested positive as of Monday. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 29 30. South Korea restarts schools after coronavirus spread slows (May 20) 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 30 31. What happen when a leader denies COVID-19? Who do you trust? Zimbabwean President Cambodian Prime Minister Mexican President Brazilian President North Korean leader Tanzanian President Turkmen President Belarusian President California congressman “The Prime Minister doesn’t wear a mask, so why do you?” “If this virus is really spreading like some people say that it is, we don’t have any data on that,” The sole Asian outlier, a virus-free haven Coronavirus cases in the Central Asian state of Turkmenistan is zero.“Corona is the devil and it cannot survive in the body of Jesus,” “It will burn.” Released a Facebook video encouraging his people to go out for dinner. “No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this” “No one will hinder my right to come and go,” Held a political rally and gave a speech to several hundred people at a school blatantly violating his own decree. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 31 32. • Brazil has the highest rate of transmission (R0 of 2·81). Large cities such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are the main hotspots. • The biggest threat to Brazil's COVID-19 response is its president, Jair Bolsonaro. • He openly flouting and discouraging physical distancing and lockdown brought in by state governors and city mayors. • The president compared COVID-19 to a “little cold”, accused the media of spreading “hysteria”, and encouraged people to “go back to normality”. • President Bolsonaro continues to dismiss the health crisis, saying the economic impacts will be far worse to what he's compared to a "little flu." Data May 17 9/6/2020 32 33. Cases spike in USA as communities reopen -53 -2 -6 +3 -1 -53 -3 -22 +15 +39 +15 -1 -18 -55 +25 -26 +27 -13 -1 +14 +45 +6 -12 -6 +2 -13 -14 -3 -17 +5 -17 -2 +11 +19 +12 -4 +41 +4 +14 -19 -15 -14 -19 +8 % • US guidelines call for 14 days decline in new cases opening • Some states are proceeding even without clearing that threshold. • The number of new cases will rise as a state performs more testing 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 33 34. WHO warns there could be a second peak, not a second wave: During a media briefing, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s health emergencies program, said the world is “right in the middle of the first wave, globally." Ryan warned that a second peak or wave could come during the normal influenza season, “which will greatly complicate things for disease control.” Americans crowd public places as Covid-19 cases rise in some states: Crowds packed beaches in Florida, Maryland, Georgia, Virginia and Indiana over the Memorial Day weekend — many venturing out without masks and others failing to keep their distance even as officials highlighted the continued importance of both in order to prevent another surge of infections. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 34 35. Sweden’s Approach to COVID-19: No lockdown, advocate Herd Immunity. Failure or success? 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 35 Anders Tegnell, the country’s state epidemiologist, told UK- based daily Financial Times last month that Sweden expects 40% of people in the capital Stockholm to be immune to COVID-19 by the end of May. In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” . Data compiled by the Sweden’s Public Health Agency, as of May 20, only 7.3% of blood samples collected from people in Stockholm had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. At least 70% to 90% of a population needs to be immune to a virus to reach herd immunity. Sweden’s COVID-19 mortality rate tops all Nordic countries and is also among the highest in the world. Stockholm will not reach this milestone in May. Earlier this month, Tegnell admitted he is not sure Sweden's strategy was the right call. "I'm not convinced at all — we are constantly thinking about this," he told Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet. 36. Feeding the hungry during COVID pandemic: Poor nations vs. rich nations Food security: Will we be better prepared for the next epidemic? 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 36 37. COVID-19 Vs. FAITH 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 37 38. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 38 39. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 39 40. COVID-19 CLUSTERS (Source: MOH, update 1/6/20) 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 40 41. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 41 42. 9/6/2020 42 43. May 12 – June 9, 2020 MCO 5 (Conditional MCO) regulations replaced MCO 4 regulations 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 43 44. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 44 45. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 45 46. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 46 47. How are we doing with our fear level? 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 47 48. Normal life (?) resuming in Malaysia 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 48 49. Facts vs. Myth: Body Disinfection? (Source: WHO) 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 49 50. Financial Implication of testing non citizens to protect citizens: Risk (costs) vs. benefits (stop COVID spread) 5.95% infection Expected 60 people positive Cost 31,204 x rm 300= Rm 9,361,200 Cost of treatment 750 x rm ? = rm ? 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 50 51. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 51 52. Back–to-school: Post COVID Looking East Korea: Depending on the school district, schools will start on different days and students will alternate between attending classes and online instructions at home.Class times and lunch hours are also being staggered. No extracurricular activities will be allowed. Students attend half-days or every other day wearing masks and sitting farther apart. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 52 53. Challenges on social distancing: Classroom capacity: up to 17 per classroom Teaching capability Teaching periods Canteen setting 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 53 54. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 54 55. The New Normal? Personal bubble in the park Drive-in movie comeback Dentist in PPE Dining with dummies Sun tan box Lunch Japanese style Tete-a tete 2 m part Drive-through graduation Cutouts fans Driver in veil9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 55 56. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 56 Travelling Post Covid Travel should still be limited to circumstances in which it's absolutely necessary. People who are immunocompromised or at high risk of developing severe illnesses, it should be avoided as much as possible. 57. Informed Citizen: Continuous Community education 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 57 58. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 58 59. 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 59 Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan Diperketatkan (PKPD) Secara pentadbiran yang dilaksanakan di dua kawasan perumahan di Bukit Changgang, Kuala Langat sejak 2 Jun dijadualkan berakhir 16 Jun ini. Pelaksanaan PKPD secara pentadbiran di kawasan itu turut membabitkan seramai 9,000 penduduk. 60. End of MCO5 June 9, 2020 9/6/2020 Covid19 risk mitigate/Tengku Hanidza 60 |
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| Posted by : peter88 | Post date : 2020-06-12 23:29 | ||
| Category : Health & Medicine | Views : 275 | ||
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