When to book a flight: post pandemic edition

Post date: 2022-06-29 22:59:58

Flights from London-Tokyo seem to be going up. If I want to go next year, should I be booking right now?

I've been planning a trip to Japan since the beginning of lockdown, and have already cancelled and rebooked twice. I've also had quite a rough few weeks which have made me even more determined to finally go, especially as we had planned it to be our last big trip for some time. I was planning for next spring or autumn when reopening is more likely, and booking with airlines with flexibility as standard.

However, prices seem to have shot up since I started looking, even though there's no formal announcement regarding reopening yet. Even though it's on the verge of 'can I justify this?' at the moment, I'm worried pent-up demand and general inflation etc. means it will only rise. I've already looked at every permutation regarding layovers, dates (there seems to be no real variation in price as there normally is), airlines, originating airports (including outwith the UK, I've done it before to save money) changes and baggage being included/not included, and even with being entirely prepared to be flexible it's still £300 each more than it was in March. I realise I'm feeling quite carpe diem about things I've always wanted to do right now, but I'm feeling like I should book it ASAP instead of waiting for a sale - would that be unwise? Is it just going to be a very expensive destination now like going to Australia?

I know the answer might end up being 'don't go' or 'go somewhere else', and it's like asking how long a piece of string is, but I was hoping for insight from people who know more about travel.

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