Last week, both the Sunday night and Monday night games featured teams coming off a bye. The won as home underdogs against the , while the covered as road favorites against the . What's interesting is that one of those results follows a trend that's emerged with teams coming off a bye, while the other goes against a different trend. And knowing which is which could help you cash in with a couple similar situations in Week 10. Let's talk about road favorites off a bye first. When the Cowboys covered on Monday night, they pushed the record for teams in that situation to 35-23 against the spread since 2011, good for a 60.3% cover rate. That's a slightly better number than
Matt Bartkowski Women Jersey involving all road teams off a bye. The trend has been even stronger lately, with those teams covering in 15 of their last 20 chances. There's one team that qualifies for that trend this week, with the coming off their bye to face the in Pittsburgh as 3.5-point favorites. Not only do they make for a good play if you want to follow the road teams off a bye trend, but the Rams have won and covered all six of their Eastern time zone games under Sean McVay, including a 37-10 beatdown of the earlier this year. Now we move to home underdogs off a bye. While the Ravens were able to win and cover in that spot on Sunday night, they defied the odds in doing so. Home underdogs off a bye are just 10-23-2 against the spread since 2011, a 30.3% cover rate. That includes a 3-11 stretch in their last 14, even though the Ravens and covered in the only two such spots this year. That brings us to the , a ma sive home underdog off their bye against the Ravens. with Baltimore favored by 10 points. While it could definitely be a comedown spot for the Ravens after their big win against the Patriots, the Bengals will have to overcome rookie making his first career start. While last week and last year were able to win their first career starts in Week 9 without having thrown a pa s in a regular-season game, QBs who make their profe sional debuts by starting a game in Week 10-16 are just 1-8 this century, with their teams scoring just under 10 points a game. If that trend matters, and if home underdogs off a bye revert to doing poorly, we could be looking at a Ravens blowout win. Each week, I break down what you need to know about each game from a
Johnny Gaudreau Jersey betting angle before you lock in your picks. I'll talk about big line moves, teasers and parlays to consider and more. If you want to know which sides I like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on . My picks Over at SportsLine, I have , and I'll be posting more over the next few days. Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday. Big line moves (
Theoren Fleury Men Jersey lookaheads) Dolphins at -10 (was IND -14.5) -1 at (was OAK -2.5) at -5 (was GB -6.5) Lookaheads are lines that are posted for matchups before the previous week's games. Analyzing the biggest movers is beneficial for smart bettors, who have a chance to examine those moves to determine whether there's value in playing against a potential overreaction. The Colts will likely be playing this week without starting quarterback , and that coupled with the Dolphins getting their first win has moved that line considerably. The Dolphins have also covered four straight, starting with the insertion of back into the lineup in the middle of their near-win against Washington in Week 6. The Chargers earned a big win over the Packers on Sunday, and the market has quickly settled on that version of the team being the real one, as they move from being valued about even with the Raiders to being a road favorite in Oakland on Thursday. The Raiders gutted out a win against the last week, so the move should solely be chalked up to Chargers love. Speaking of that Chargers win, the Packers have seen their line drop 1.5 points off the lookahead after the offense completely fell apart in Los Angeles. The Packers do have one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL, so if this line creeps any lower, we'll be getting into the territory where the market is valuing the Panthers as close to even with the Packers on a neutral field. Where DVOA disagrees with line -3.5 at Giants -2.5 vs. Rams -3.5 at Steelers Part of my research each week is calculating the DVOA (or DAVE, which is partially reflective of preseason projections) as tracked by Football Outsiders and seeing where the metric has a significant disagreement with the market. Now that defensive adjustments have been included following Week 4, I'll include that analysis here. This section went 0-4 ATS last week, so it may be best to take these calculations with a grain of salt. But these plays have been enough over 50% long-term that I'm comfortable factoring in any imbalances to teams I could want to hop on moving forward. The Chiefs figure to get back this week after he seemed close to facing the this past Sunday, and a Chiefs team with Mahomes should be favored by more than the market line suggests. The DVOA numbers put that line at about Chiefs -6.5. DAVE is
Miikka Kiprusoff Women Jersey giving the slight edge to the Jets over the Giants in their ratings moving forward, but that's largely due to the predictive ratings not giving as harsh a penalty for the offensive performance we've seen over the past few weeks. If you just judge the Jets by their performance to date, DVOA would make the Giants even bigger favorites (about Giants -5) on a neutral field, which MetLife Stadium basically is. Contrary to our analysis at the top that favors the Rams, here we have a metric that says the Steelers are the play, with the difference between the two teams not worth the price the market has set. Instead, DVOA would knock two points off the line and make it Rams -1.5. Fading the public Chiefs -3.5 at Titans +3 at Giants -2.5 vs. Jets If 80% of the action or more is on one side of a line, you want to be thinking about taking the other side, a practice commonly known as fading the public. If the consensus thinks it has a game figured out, that should be flashing warning signs for you. All betting trends data is from Sports Insights as of Tuesday night. Fading the public sure worked out last week, with the failing to cover and the Packers losing outright as the top two plays from our Wednesday column. This week, the early action has been on the
Austin Czarnik Jersey Chiefs, Bills and Giants, so if you can stomach taking the other side in those games, you could be rewarded should fading the public have another strong day. Underdog parlay of the week Lions +125 at +190 at Bucs We're going with two teams that have yet to make an appe
